Continued discussion and investigation on the Electoral Race between Biden and Trump- just a matter of days away.
Florida is known to be a tipping point battleground state that has generally predicted the President over the past dozen elections in the United States (with some exceptions e.g. H W Bush won the state in 92, despite losing to Bill Clinton). The state consists of many white voters between the ages of 50 and 65, a large portion of Trump’s base, however it also consists of many minority communities, namely Latina and Latino Americans of whom Joe Biden has had a smaller lead with then Hillary in 2016. Nonetheless, Joe Biden won the state in the Democratic Primary over Bernie Sanders in a shocking landslide victory with an incredibly high voter turnout- something Democrats are looking to replicate in the Presidential election. Biden leads with a 3-5% average over Trump in the state- in contrast to Hillary’s 0.7% at this time in 2016. Hillary ended up losing this state in 2016 by 112, 000 individuals- just 1.2% of voters in total. Once again, a tight race in this key state is suggested for the election.
Florida generally is won by smaller margins by the winning candidate- with only 537 votes deciding the victor of the state in the controversial 2000 election between Bush and Gore; of which relied on a recount.
Georgia is a state that hasn’t gone democratic since 1992, when Bill Clinton won over George H W Bush and Ross Perot, and before with Jimmy Carter- who was from the state itself- in 1980. Nonetheless, this traditionally red state has been trending blue since the 2018 midterms, with Stacy Abrams losing the Gubernatorial race by just 1.4%. The state is home to many of Trump’s base, however does consist of a high African American population that Joe Biden is hoping will elect him to the Presidency in this election. This race has looked consistently tight in recent weeks, with the lead fluctuating between Trump and Biden quite frequently- something it never did in 2016 for Hillary Clinton. Trump at this time in 2016 was polling at 4% ahead of Hillary, by modest accounts, and ended up winning by a larger 5.3%. In contrast, Georgia is currently in dead heat between the candidates; with a New York Times Poll, ranked highly in accuracy, putting both candidates at 45%. Other polls have Biden winning by 5%, while others have Trump leading by 4%. Ultimately, this will undoubtedly be a tight race- and indicative of the state’s blue-ward trend.
North Carolina went for President Obama against John McCain in 2008 by less then a percentage point- and ever since this traditionally red state has gone for the Republican candidate; by 2% in 2012 for Mitt Romney and by 4% for Trump in 2016. Over the past few months, many disgruntled voters have pivoted from the Republican party to Biden as a candidate- looking for a more unifying voice in the White House. As such, Biden is shockingly leading over Trump by 4-8% in the state. Polls at this time arrogantly had Hillary winning by 0.7%- within the margin of error, but still highly innacurate. This does have many democrats worried, but fortunately for the party, their path to the White House doesn’t depend on North Carolina as a tipping state. Nonetheless, the race is still one to be suspicious about.
Arizona, like North Carolina and Georgia, is a state that wasn’t expected to come into real play in this election; having voted Republican consistently; even over Lyndon Johnson in 29164- following the assasination of JFK. It last voted Democrat for popular incumbent Bill Clinton in 1996 over Bob Dole in 1996. The state was home to the late great John McCain- a close friend of Biden’s up until the former’s death in 2018- of whom Donald Trump expressed resentment of on multiple occasions. Many Republicans in the state, including a large Catholic and Mormon population, have decided to vote against the Republican Party for Joe Biden; many having previously voted for Trump in 2016. Arizona was polling for Trump by 2.2% on average at this time last election, and was won by the President by 4%. Biden however has had his lead in this state fluctuate recently, however has still improved since earlier months. He now holds a steady lead at 5-8%, with some estimating that number to be lower. Nonetheless it is looking likely that this state will defy traditional party lines and go for the Democratic candidate in this pivotal election.
Ohio went for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 by small margins of 5% and 3%- before swinging for Trump by 8%. He had been polling at 2% in the state, and thus once again it was shown that polls had largely underestimated his base in this key battleground state. While polls are roughly equal for him this time, they are a lot closer and a lot less steadily in his favour. Some polls have Biden leading by 1-2% over Trump in a tight race, while others have Trump closely retaining the swing state with 2-3%. Undoubtedly though it is an important state for Trump to win, with no Republican President having lost Ohio and yet winning the Presidency at the same time. Trump campaigned on the message of bringing back jobs to the state, particularly in manufacturing, of which he did deliver to an extent prior to Covid 19. Due to the virus and the management of the pandemic however, such jobs have been erased- and global trends look as though they may not be coming back under Trump’s plan. Nonetheless though, it does look as though Trump will win the state- albeit by a smaller margin then in 2016.
Iowa looked as though it may not go for a Democratic President in sometime, however the 2018 midterms and this year’s senate race have contradicted this early assumption- and Biden seems to be doing fairly well in this state, often generating small leads over the President in recent weeks. Home to many farmers of whom faced bankruptcies in the face of Trump’s ill-executed trade war, and broader Covid 19 management, the President is facing the possibility of losing a state he won by 9% in 2016. Barack Obama won the state in 2008 and 2012 by 10% and 6% margins- and Biden seems to be leading by 1-2% in many recent October polls. However, some estimates have Trump leading with a 0.9% lead; 2% less then his 2016 poll lead. Such a concerning difference between 2016 and 2020 polling does spell trouble for the Republican candidate in this presidential race; especially since the majority of credible polls never placed Hillary with a lead in the state, in significant contrast to Joe Biden. Ultimately however, this state remains enigmatic in where it may give it’s 6 electoral votes- though it does look as though Trump may win by a small lead.
Farmer bankruptcies and the detrimental impact of the Covid Pandemic and Protectionism both have negatively impacted farmers and workers in the MidWest. Bankruptcies were up 20% prior to Covid due to the US-China Trade War, and 44% of farmers now have stated that they have difficulty managing increasing costs. Nonetheless, Trump has a lead with farmers in the region- though one massively lower than that of his lead in 2016.
Of course, there are multiple other states in this election that should be watched closely, and may just surprise us- such as South Carolina, Texas, Nevada, Missouri, Alaska, Montana, New Hampshire and Virginia. Nonetheless, however- it is these 9 battleground states that will no doubt choose what vision the USA will follow for the next 4 years.
Ultimately though, no matter what party you may belong to, this will go down as the most important Presidential Election of our time.
|2020 Polls||2016 Result||2016 Polls|
|Michigan||7-9%- Biden||<1%- Trump||4%- Hillary|
|Wisconsin||7-12%- Biden||<1%- Trump||5%- Hillary|
|Pennsylvania||6%- Biden||<1%- Trump||4%- Hillary|
|Minnesota||10-13%- Biden||1.5%- Hillary||6%- Hillary|
|Florida||3-5%- Biden||1.2%- Trump||<1%- Hillary|
|Georgia||TIE||5.3%- Trump||4%- Trump|
|North Carolina||4-8%- Biden||4%- Trump||0.7%- Hillary|
|Ohio||1%- Trump||8%- Trump||2%- Trump|
|Iowa||TIE||9%- Trump||3%- Trump|
|General Election (Popular Vote)||9-13%- Biden||2%- Hillary||2-4%- Hillary|
|General Election (Electoral College)||351: Biden181: Trump||306: Trump201: Hillary||302- Hillary235- Trump|